The U.S. economy has shrunk for two quarters in a row, according to recent data by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The advance estimate shows that real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased by an annual rate of 0.9% in Q2 2022, following a decrease of 1.6% in Q1 2022.


With two straight quarters of economic decline, small business owners may worry about whether the U.S. is experiencing (or headed toward) a recession. While we cannot yet say with certainty whether our nation is facing a recession, small business owners will still want to monitor economic activity and prepare for the worst-case scenario.
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What defines a recession?According to Curtis Dubay, Chief Economist at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, whether we are in a recession “is a more difficult question to answer than usual.”

The typical definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of the economy shrinking. However, decreasing GDP isn’t the only determining factor.
“Other key economic data matter, too [...] like income, job growth, consumer spending, and manufacturing output,” Dubay explained. “In normal times, if the economy is contracting, all these important economic indicators are falling too. However, we are not in normal economic times, so the typical pattern may not hold.”
Dubay noted that many of these additional economic indicators are holding steady, despite falling GDP:

• Income growth and job gains have remained consistent over the past year.
• Job openings have dropped slightly but are still at record highs.
• Consumers continue to spend despite high inflation rates — “in part because they have built up savings they accumulated during COVID, and manufacturing output has been holding up,” said Dubay.                              

“It would be difficult to call a period where this continues a recession, even if the economy meets the technical definition of one,” he added.              
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Reading the signs of recessionEven if we can’t conclusively say the economy is in a true recession right now, a second straight quarter of declining GDP may signal a slowdown in economic momentum. Q1 2022’s supply chain issues, along with trade imbalances and decreases in inventories, began the trend. As Q3 2022 gets underway, ongoing inflation and spiking Federal Reserve interest rates could push the economy closer to a true recession.
Dubay added that regardless of whether a recession occurs, consumers and businesses are still feeling the impact of an uncertain economy — and many are taking action accordingly.
“Consumer sentiment about the economy … is lower than even during the first few months of COVID in mid-2020,” he said. “Similarly, business confidence is down sharply, and businesses are cutting back on investment.”

How to prepare for a potential recessionAs risks of an economic downturn increase, small businesses should prepare accordingly. Here are some tips to recession-proof your business and withstand any economy:

• Be adaptable. Strategies and offerings that have worked in the past may no longer be feasible, or may not meet your customers’ current needs. Be aware of the current economic climate, listen to your client base, and conduct the necessary research. Based on the information you find, prepare to adapt or pivot accordingly.
• Know your finances. Monitor your cash flow, profit margins, and other financial metrics to understand where your business stands. Cut unnecessary costs to prevent overspending and offer a safety net in the event of a recession.
• Keep investing in your business. Cutting your budget doesn’t mean you should stop investing in your company — you just want to put your funds where they’ll make the most impact. Continue to invest in marketing and advertising efforts and seek growth opportunities whenever possible.
• Communicate openly with your team. Economic downturns are stressful for business owners and employees alike. Keep your team informed about the state of your business and the “why” behind important decisions. You may also consider supplementing your business with freelancers prior to a recession to ensure agility and adaptability.

While small businesses would be wise to recession-proof their operations, they can also plan ahead for brighter days, said Dubay.
“Inflation will come down and conditions will feel more like normal, probably within a few years. At that point, the economy is poised to grow strongly,” Dubay explained. “It would be helpful to be ready to enjoy that coming boom period, so as not to miss out on it at the beginning.”

CO— aims to bring you inspiration from leading respected experts. However, before making any business decision, you should consult a professional who can advise you based on your individual situation.

To stay on top of all the news impacting your small business, go here for all of our latest small business news and updates.
CO—is committed to helping you start, run and grow your small business. Learn more about the benefits of small business membership in the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, here.

Richmond, Ind. – For the second year in a row, the Wayne County Area Chamber of Commerce finds itself in the Indiana top ten list among its peers. This time, it placed sixth in the state.

The Indiana Chamber Executives Association (ICEA) presents the Chamber of the Year award at its annual conference.  Chambers reaching a certain score when evaluated by out-of-state judges make it into the list of finalists.  There were nine finalists this year. Ultimately, Zionsville took home the top prize.

“It is such an honor to be recognized at the state level for the work of our Chamber here in Wayne County,” said President and CEO Melissa Vance. “When there are 154 Chambers in Indiana, to be ranked sixth is a big deal.  We have a great team working alongside an outstanding board and community partners,” she added.

Last year, the Chamber was in the top ten and Vance was among four finalists for Chamber Executive of the Year.  She will, however, be quick to say these recognitions are not their “why” – they are simply a result of serving their mission.  The success of member businesses and growth of the community remain the focus of the organization.

“It is clear that together we can make meaningful impact!” Vance concluded.

MEDIA CONTACT:                                 
Deborah Holdorff
Deborah@WCAreaChamber.org
(765) 962-1511

The Wayne County Area Chamber of Commerce is your link to the Wayne County community!
We exist to foster an attractive, welcoming community that is rich in enterprise and growing in population and prosperity.
We Promote, Lead, Unite and Serve our members, our businesses and our communities (PLUS) through:

• Advocacy & Awareness
• Professional Development & Training
• Networking & Engagement
• Benefits & Support

About the Indiana Chamber of Commerce Executives:
Incorporated in 1915, ICEA stands firm on a solid foundation for developing a strong network of professionals leading local chambers across Indiana. ICEA membership has become synonymous with access to a network of experienced Chamber executives with exposure to emerging trends and usable ideas on every facet of chamber of commerce management. 

Written by: Lindsey McClain, Chamber Intern

Kristin Wolfe shares two passions: owning a business and helping others get healthy. The former was accomplished in October of 2021, when she first opened the doors to the newly renovated space for Peak Nutrition–a health shop with products that taste deliciously like dessert. The latter has been accomplished every day since then–with her ability to share these beneficial drinks with the residents of Wayne County. Her products are made and approved by a company called HerbaLife Nutrition, a business that’s been thriving for over 42 years. The company has teams of 250+ staff scientists, many holding PHD’s, and 100+ doctors. One employee on their Nutrition Advisory Board, Lou Ignarro, even won the Nobel Prize in medicine. Kristin and her customers appreciate the care that goes into creating both safe and nutritionally balanced products. It’s really a wonder that such a wide selection of these sought after products are available right here in Wayne County.
 
Kristin first stumbled upon HerbaLife products after her daughter's wisdom teeth surgery. She couldn’t eat solid foods, and the shakes were recommended to help aid her recovery and boost her nutrition. When Kristin tried the shakes, she knew immediately how much she loved them and how much she wanted everyone to experience their benefits. It was Healthy Happys in Westfield that helped make this dream a reality, often mentoring Kristin and teaching her the continued processes of business ownership. Kristin said the hardest parts of her journey have been having a mentor so far away and trying to learn new marketing strategies on her own. She has made immense progress though, advertising Peak Nutrition on Facebook and Instagram and featuring weekly drinks, monthly specialty menus, and a number of weight loss challenges and groups.
 
Peak Nutrition has a number of products to choose from including protein bites, oatmeal, herbal teas, and even iced coffee. Some of her most popular items are energy bombs and protein shakes, which are more than just a sweet treat, but an entire meal wrapped into one thick and filling shake.They attract customers with flavors such as Jamaican’ Me Happy, Shark Bite, Peanut Butter Pie and Adventureful Girl Scout Cookie. Customers especially love their peanut butter banana and cookie dough varieties. Kristin swears by the products, particularly the nutritional shakes, which she says helped her to lose 15 pounds. She was ecstatic to find something that diminished her cravings and kept her full and satisfied for hours. She describes it as a “nutrient packed and healthy way to lose weight”. This is just part of the reason Kristin felt called to bring her products to Wayne County. She was also impressed by the incredible number of people who look towards these products to meet their athletic and fitness goals. The products are endorsed by Olympic athletes, weight loss specialists, and even consumed by the Notre Dame football team. With 24g of protein, 12 vitamins and minerals, and less than 300 calories, the shakes attract a wide range of customers with a number of health goals.
 
Kristin is most proud of accomplishing her dream of starting her own business, but she is rewarded everyday by the support she receives from Wayne County residents and regular customers. She hopes one day to open a second location and eventually make Peak Nutrition her full time job and retirement project. She says there’s nothing more unique than a “healthy smoothie shop that tastes like a cheat day.” Peak Nutrition offers products for every health goal, and it is supported by Kristin’s passion for her product offerings, the storefront, and her desire to help others lead healthier and happier lives.

US Chamber of Commerce

Job openings in March were more than 11.5 million. This is 205,000 more openings than in February and a record, dating back to 2000.

Why it matters: The worker shortage crisis is getting worse with employers struggling to fill open roles.

By the numbers:

• Job openings increased in retail trade (155,000) and in durable goods manufacturing (50,000). 
• Job openings decreased in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (69,000); state and local government education (43,000); and federal government (20,000).
• Workers remain confident about leaving their current positions and finding new ones. In March, 4.5 million people quit their jobs – an all-time high. The quits rate was 3.0%, which matches the all-time high. 
• Quits increased in professional and business services (88,000) and construction (69,000).

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Bottom line: Along with inflation, the ongoing worker shortage crisis is a big problem for the economy right now, which is why the Chamber launched the America Works initiative.

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—Curtis Dubay, Senior Economist, U.S. Chamber of Commerce

Small businesses everywhere are being impacted by the interrelated challenges of rising inflation, supply chain disruptions, and the worker shortage crisis—but inflation is hitting small businesses especially hard.
Inflation is, by far, the top concern for small businesses this quarter, according to new data from the MetLife & U.S. Chamber of Commerce Special Report on Inflation and Supply Chain Shocks on Small Business. While these were key challenges cited last quarter, concerns around inflation and supply chains have intensified quickly.